February 1, 2017
The Winter/Spring 2017 Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey, taken entirely after the Presidential election, shows no discernible economic shift, despite Hillary Clinton being the heavy favorite among California residents. The biannual survey projects a three-year-ahead outlook for the state’s CRE industry and forecasts potential opportunities and challenges affecting the major property sectors.
Observations from 2016 remained unchanged, and the natural cycle in CRE appears to be running its course somewhat independent of the presidential contest.
UCLA Anderson’s Jerry Nickelsburg said this may be due “to the upward bump in consumer confidence and stock prices, and in part because the regulatory environment in California is not likely to change much. While the outlook for 2017 may look relatively good, the strong move towards online shopping, higher interest rates, a continued redefinition of the office environment, and the dropping of fertility rates [remain the] driving factors in commercial real estate.”
Among the findings for the retail sector include:
- Retail continues to undergo a profound change from distribution conduits to experience-shopping venues
- Online purchases shift retail demand from brick and mortar distribution to warehouse distribution systems
- Continued strength in industrial space hasn’t turned developers against the sector, except in LA and Orange County
- Tax cuts and upscale shopping in the Bay Area may make developers optimistic overall, but perhaps not so much as to jump in with a new retail project
- In SoCal, spending power has come to upscale consumers a little later, and the refurbishment of somewhat tired malls is now attractive
For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Dennis Kaiser