July 14, 2020
The Chicago Federal Reserve’s Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) Activity Index increased to +3 in June from –32 in May, suggesting that economic growth was near trend. The CFSBC Manufacturing Activity Index moved up to +31 in June from –19 in May, and the CFSBC Non-manufacturing Activity Index increased to −10 in June from –39 in the previous month.
Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months improved and remained optimistic on balance, according to the Chicago Fed. Forty-four percent of respondents expected an increase in economic activity over the next three months, and 48% expected activity to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.
The pace of current hiring decreased slightly, as did respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months. There was also a slight decrease in expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months.
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