May 20, 2020
As the epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S., New York City faces a slower economic recovery than much of the country, according to the nonpartisan Independent Budget Office (IBO). IBO’s forecast, covering the state and national outlook along with the city’s, projects that employment citywide will take four years to recover.
IBO said it expects total employment losses of 388,000 in New York City during the second quarter, and another 58,000 layoffs in Q3, “followed by diminished but continued job losses through the first quarter of calendar year 2021. Strong gains in employment and income in the city are not expected until calendar year 2022.”
Although the job losses are concentrated in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, and eating and drinking establishments, “virtually every industry in the city will lose jobs,” IBO said. Employment locally isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels before 2024, compared to 2022 nationally.
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