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September 25, 2016 Comments Off on Job Numbers, Mixed Signals, Forecasting Challenges Views: 332 National News, Northeast

Job Numbers, Mixed Signals, Forecasting Challenges

Recent job numbers show consisting hiring (though slowing down), a steady unemployment rate and layoffs at historically low levels. The workforce participation rate, however, remains stuck near its 40-year-low.

The job news continues offering mixed signals. This, in turn, is a challenge to forecasters, from the Federal Reserve, to investors. The unemployment rate has been less than 5% for close to a year, while the twelve-month trailing average of job creation has been 204,000 a month, far above the long-run average.

However, IHS Markit’s chief economist Nariman Behravesh suggested that averages aren’t an accurate measure. “A lot of low-skilled and blue-collar workers have been left behind,” he commented. “They might have a job, but it pays less than the job they had before the recession.”

Read More at Wall Street Journal

Connect with IHS Markit’s Behravesh

For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Amy Sorter

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