December 15, 2018
The Lone Star State has benefitted from corporate relocations and expansions over the past several years. Talking the long-term view, through 2045, economist Ray Perryman with the Perryman Group forecasts the Texas GDP to increase by 3.2% annually. This, in turn, will mean an increase from $1.7 trillion in 2017 to more than $4 trillion in 2045. Additionally, 7.2 million net new jobs will be generated, leading to a total of 19.8 million employed by 2045.
Some reasons for the growth:
Demographic trends. Perryman indicated that, while Texas isn’t immune to the overall labor shortage trend, “the state’s population is significantly younger than the nation as a whole.” That youth will provide an edge when it comes to worker availability.
Energy and oil. Current estimates pertaining to the Permian Basin are that recoverable reserves are “far larger than the amounts produced to date, and production will likely expand rapidly in the near future,” Perryman said. With infrastructure improvements, “energy industries will remain a driver of long-term prosperity of the state,” he added.
The one headwind is trade; the U.S. continues negotiating/renegotiating several trade agreements. The fewer barriers to trade, Perryman said, the better. “About $1 out of every $6 of U.S. trade is from Texas,” he said. “The future of trade and the future of Texas are inextricably linked.”
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