January 14, 2019
New research by Trepp calculates there’s nearly $100 billion of CMBS debt coming up for refinancing between now and 2020. Based on a November snapshot, that encompasses $40.9 billion and $44 billion scheduled to pay off in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
That’s somewhat of a surprise, considering the muted CMBS issuance activity during the recessionary years of 2009 and 2010, which Trepp notes, may have led to a mistaken expectation that a small volume of commercial mortgages would mature over the next two years.
Trepp’s Catherine Liu writes the reason behind the increased load of maturities is due to the rising popularity of single-asset transactions. She says that’s added “a sizable chunk” of shorter-term, floating-rate CMBS deals into the flow of maturing issuance.
The risk, Trepp points out, are loans against hotels, the property type that is most sensitive to cyclical and demand variability, and accounts for 31% of the maturing volume.
In terms of other property types, loans against retail properties make up 22% of the total, while office loans account for another 19%. A total of 34% of the loans that are coming due are in conduit deals, while 59% are from single-borrower transactions, reports Trepp.
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