July 20, 2016
California’s commercial real estate continues its boom, but as U.S. economic growth slows, there are signs of this boom topping out. Those are among the key findings released today in the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey.
A potential concern is the slowing growth of employment and income, which impacts CRE fundamentals. Respondents in the biannual survey project a three-year-ahead outlook for California’s CRE industry and forecasts potential opportunities and challenges affecting office, multifamily, retail and industrial sectors.
UCLA’s Jerry Nickelsburg says the survey “provides the first indication of a topping out in office and retail markets.”
Key findings for the product types include:
- For each of the six markets surveyed (San Francisco, the East Bay, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego), office developer sentiment has declined since its peak in 2014, as developers become more pessimistic about the growth of real rental rates and vacancy rates.
- Interest in building new office space has held steady and the expectation is for more building to occur in the 2016-2017 time frame than in the past 12 months.
- San Francisco, Silicon Valley and East Bay respondents all think that by 2019, real rental rates and vacancy rates will be worse than today.
- Multifamily construction is expected to hit a 25-year high during the next three years.
- The current economic expansion reflects a shift in tastes from primarily single-family housing to a balanced mix between single-family and multifamily housing.
- The Silicon Valley, San Diego and San Francisco multifamily markets are expected to tighten over the coming three years, relative to Orange County.
- Los Angeles multifamily vacancy rates are expected to increase over the next three years even as real rental rates continue to rise.
- Retail is currently being driven by two factors: new construction of retail spaces to support the booming multifamily market, and renovations of existing high quality malls from brick-and-mortar stores to experience venues. There are also significant headwinds as consumers shift to online purchases.
- Industrial markets, particularly the warehouse segment, remain on fire.
- An extremely low industrial vacancy rate, and an optimistic view by developers, should extend the building boom through at least 2019.
For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Dennis Kaiser