November 30, 2016
The impact of President-Elect Donald Trump, as well as real estate cycles, made up the bulk of discussion about the North American real estate market at the Global Property Market Canadian Real Estate Forum on Nov. 9. Connect Media’s Daniel Ceniceros moderated the panel, as it skillfully moved through compelling topics — ranging from politics to foreign investment — before hundreds of participants at the Metro Toronto Convention Center in Ontario, Canada.
Trump was first out of the starting blocks, with the panelists agreeing that uncertainty was the only certainty. Will McIntosh with USAA Real Estate Co. did forecast a yield curve inversion for 2018, though a short one, especially with real estate pricing inflation into equations.
“I don’t know of any expansion that’s ever died of old age,” he commented, adding that Trump’s tax cuts and infrastructure legislation will take time to implement.
The cost of rising debt was also addressed, with TH Real Estate’s Randy Giraldo saying that the increase of 30-50 basis points was flatlining real estate prices. What wasn’t flatlining, however, were industrial and grocery-anchored retail, about which the panelists were enthusiastic. Kim Hourihan with CBRE GI did point out that e-commerce is increasing, but amounts for only 9% of retail sales, making brick-and-mortar a good investment. Both she and Colliers International Andrew Nelson indicated that industrial, by far, is the best real estate for investors.
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