March 17, 2020
As world economies react to the necessary disruptions from Covid-19, UCLA Anderson Forecast authors, for the first time in their 68-year history, have revised quarterly predictions on the U.S. economy in a rapid response to new and unforeseen conditions.
UCLA economists now say the U.S. economy has already entered a recession, ending the historic expansion that began in July 2009. The revisions incorporate modeling based on the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic, that, when paired with current data reflecting a rapidly changing U.S. economy, point to a slowing through the end of Q3 2020.
The revised forecast includes an important caveat. If the pandemic abates quickly because of the extraordinary measures and action addressing it, an outcome that the medical community thinks unlikely but possible, then the forecast will be too pessimistic and economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of the year will be higher.
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