April 21, 2017
The U.S. economy and CRE industry are, in general, expected to experience moderate growth through much of 2019, according to a new three-year economic forecast from the Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate.
Eight ULI report projections:
- Relative high, but moderating CRE volumes, declining from $489 billion in 2016 to $450 billion in 2017 and 2018, and slipping to $430 billion in 2019
- Continued commercial price appreciation, 5% in 2017, 3.5% in 2018 and 3% in 2019, all below the long-term average growth rate of 5.7%
- Rent growth ranges from 4.6% for industrial to 2% for apartments
- Positive returns, but at lower rates… 2017 returns expected to range from 9.8% for industrial, to 6% for both office and apartments
- Relatively stable vacancy/occupancy rates for all CRE sectors
- Continued growth in single-family housing starts, projected to increase from 781,500 units in 2016 to 920,000 units in 2019
- Healthy GDP growth
- Moderating employment growth
The latest ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast is based on a survey of 53 of the industry’s top economists and analysts representing 39 of the country’s leading real estate investment, advisory, and research firms and organizations.
For comments, questions or concerns, please contact Dennis Kaiser